taseditor, the overworld is indeed a harsh mistress :(
I've been messing with the movie and the fastest I can get there so far with the seed you've got (by taking only one step on the path near p2 in stead of 2) is 9 frames behind the published movie, you said you were 9 frames ahead of that so that is 18 frames lost :(
Curiously, waiting inside of glitch town for any number of frames between 0 and 9, or the full 18 frames does not seem to result in the same initial overworld spawns I got in the published movie. In fact, the time encounters barely changed at all.
I was not aware of other ways to manipulate the spawns besides time, so it seemed to me the results would be the same as what I saw in the published movie. But there apparently is something I have missed after all this time.
For the published movie, I redid the downstab basement to be 1 frame slower than my fastest result and the overworld changed significantly.
So I waited for 1 frame in the town screen with the downstab door, and this is the result:
http://tasvideos.org/userfiles/info/12701473793563120
As you can see, I was still not successful in getting around the spawns efficiently, but more importantly, the behavior of the time-based enemy spawns is drastically changed, and so is the random steps the spawns take. I was experiencing only subtle changes by waiting on the last screen in town. I don't want to suggest trial and error, because that's pretty lame. But try some different stuff deeper into Mido town to see if you can get a friendly seed?