This one is post count vs private message count for all player ranks, coders, site admin, robot. Each dot is a different person.
Trendline added at DK64_MASTER's request.
Can anyone make a graph of movies that do obsolete an old movie and those that don't vs. date?
Sage advice from a friend of Jim: So put your tinfoil hat back in the closet, open your eyes to the truth, and realize that the government is in fact causing austismal cancer with it's 9/11 fluoride vaccinations of your water supply.
This one is post count vs private message count for all player ranks, coders, site admin, robot. Each dot is a different person.
Trendline added at DK64_MASTER's request.
Wonder what happened then, or was it just a coincidence?
Perhaps a realization that pretty much every old movie is, in fact, realistically improvable — even those deemed perfect. Donkey Kong improvement came right at that time.
[EDIT]
Also, seems like that time also more-or-less coincided with saturation of TASed games' library. Seems like most new games, especially on NES, are nowadays TASed by Chinese and Japanese players (not without a reason). Or by Aqfaq, if talking about Genesis.
Warp wrote:
Edit: I think I understand now: It's my avatar, isn't it? It makes me look angry.
Joined: 4/8/2005
Posts: 1573
Location: Gone for a year, just for varietyyyyyyyyy!!
moozooh wrote:
Seems like most new games, especially on NES, are nowadays TASed by Chinese and Japanese players (not without a reason). Or by Aqfaq, if talking about Genesis.
Yup, I suppose that's more or less correct.
However, unfortunately, I must inform you that you've probably seen the peak of my submissions recently and it is very unlikely that I make another Genesis submission in 2008. I have destroyed enough Genesis games already and they offer me nothing new anymore. I might do a short NES TAS sometime, but probably not. There are a few PC games that I would really like to record with consistent tools, but it is not going to happen anytime soon.
Well, maybe if general TAS methods and tools evolve further in some surprising/inspiring way, I might record more (Genesis) stuff, but at the moment I'm not interested.
Also, maybe if/when someone improves my movies, I might fight back a bit or cooperate with the initiator. :)
Otherwise, I'll probably just lurk, post a few messages every now and then and make an occasional edit at somepage.
(Ofcourse, it is possible that I'll submit another sixpack of obscure movies this year. You never know...)
Can anyone make a graph of movies that do obsolete an old movie and those that don't vs. date?
Hooya.
To solve the question of 'what happened', it may be interesting to see the derivative of this graph, and determine when actual changes occurred. For example, what happened in 7/2004 that massively slowed the number of new movies being posted? When exactly did the number of obsoleting movies start to increase?
Good ol' math.
Sage advice from a friend of Jim: So put your tinfoil hat back in the closet, open your eyes to the truth, and realize that the government is in fact causing austismal cancer with it's 9/11 fluoride vaccinations of your water supply.
To solve the question of 'what happened', it may be interesting to see the derivative of this graph, and determine when actual changes occurred.
Hooya.
Weekly:
Disclaimer: The granularity for these graphs is not necessarily a calendar month / week. The units are 30 days and 7 days, but not anchored at any particular calendar position.
Anyway, to me it seems like everything is fine :)
Edit: Oh, right, nobody takes me seriously anymore. Oops.
It wouldn't suprise me if it was somehow related to the proliferation of memory watch utilities/users.
Those indirectly cause a requirement for more precision, which takes more time.
I would imagine a similar (although much less powerful) effect happened when FCEU became usable with frame-advance.
As the "required quality" rises, the "acceptable publish level" also rises; this means that new people need to have more knowledge of game mechanics and memory watch tools, which makes "getting into it" more difficult, which results in less people attempting it with any hope of a published movie.
In short:
The bar for newcomers has been raised too high, meaning that mostly veterans are TASing; combine this with a lack of wanting to work on "lesser-known" games and you end up with a rapidly dwindling supply of new games to work on.
This is just my idea, though, but from sitting back and observing it seems to make sense.
Edit: Oh, right, nobody takes me seriously anymore. Oops.
It wouldn't suprise me if it was somehow related to the proliferation of memory watch utilities/users.
Those indirectly cause a requirement for more precision, which takes more time.
I would imagine a similar (although much less powerful) effect happened when FCEU became usable with frame-advance.
As the "required quality" rises, the "acceptable publish level" also rises; this means that new people need to have more knowledge of game mechanics and memory watch tools, which makes "getting into it" more difficult, which results in less people attempting it with any hope of a published movie.
In short:
The bar for newcomers has been raised too high, meaning that mostly veterans are TASing; combine this with a lack of wanting to work on "lesser-known" games and you end up with a rapidly dwindling supply of new games to work on.
This is just my idea, though, but from sitting back and observing it seems to make sense.
No, I think you are spot on. I think your second point, which really wasn't a summation of the first is the most disheartening part of this evolution. There are some who think introduction of new consoles will help.
The problem is, its a shape up or ship out kind of mentality, which isn't newbie friendly. As older folks leave, there really won't be a crop of ready newbies to take their place.
Sage advice from a friend of Jim: So put your tinfoil hat back in the closet, open your eyes to the truth, and realize that the government is in fact causing austismal cancer with it's 9/11 fluoride vaccinations of your water supply.
To solve the question of 'what happened', it may be interesting to see the derivative of this graph, and determine when actual changes occurred.
Hooya.
Anyway, to me it seems like everything is fine :)
Wow, actually, if you mentally plot a trendline, the number of publications of new stuff is a slowly decaying polynomial, whereas the number of of obsoleting publications seems to actually stay fairly constant.
Bisqwit, is there anyway I could get the month-to-month data in an excel or binary format? (Sorry, last request :) )
Sage advice from a friend of Jim: So put your tinfoil hat back in the closet, open your eyes to the truth, and realize that the government is in fact causing austismal cancer with it's 9/11 fluoride vaccinations of your water supply.
Edit: Oh, right, nobody takes me seriously anymore. Oops.
If it makes you feel better, for some of us 'anymore' doesn't have a whole lot to do with it.
You can't lose what you never had. Good point, I suppose.
DarkKobold wrote:
No, I think you are spot on. I think your second point, which really wasn't a summation of the first is the most disheartening part of this evolution. There are some who think introduction of new consoles will help.
The problem is, its a shape up or ship out kind of mentality, which isn't newbie friendly. As older folks leave, there really won't be a crop of ready newbies to take their place.
heh.
The nice thing about new consoles is that the technology won't be as advanced as it is for NES/SNES/etc, so the bar won't be so high. Remember the Ocarina of Time movie? A lot of people think it shouldn't have been published at all, but consider that there weren't so many tools and the technology was very new.
However, on the other hand, a TAS of newer consoles is considerably more complex and daunting; there's no longer 8 buttons or 2-"by the pixel"-dimensions; there are many more combinations of input and three dimensions, which makes it harder to tell what goes on.
As an aside, the "elitest" mentality is fairly present here, which (as you said) has a tendancy to scare off newbies. The lack of a good tutorial and guide isn't very helpful, either -- there isn't a "How to TAS - Basics" page and I doubt there will be any time soon.
Deign (IRC): There are always a few exceptions to things.. but by no means should it be expected to be a common occurance.
--
As another aside, the same effect has happened in the Super Mario World hacking scene (that I watched for quite a while, before this)... at the beginning, it was just "create new levels". Then it became, "create new graphics". Then it was "use custom blocks to achieve new effects", then "create your own sprites in assembly".
Each step of this reduced the number of (good) newbies and interesting output further, since the bar to create a "good" hack was always rising. Even moreso, anybody who didn't achieve all these things was usually walked all over and treated like trash.
Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be a solution. Lowering the bar to allow in more incoming things would be against the site goals, while providing useful tutorials would still require a lot of time and effort for a questionable outcome. Why bother working for months on something nobody will care about?
So, being the MATLAB dork I am, I took Bisqwit's data and ran it through a couple low-pass filters to determine trends.
Sage advice from a friend of Jim: So put your tinfoil hat back in the closet, open your eyes to the truth, and realize that the government is in fact causing austismal cancer with it's 9/11 fluoride vaccinations of your water supply.
So, being the MATLAB dork I am, I took Bisqwit's data and ran it through a couple low-pass filters to determine trends.
Consider using PNG for your image. It would be very tiny (provided you used the original and not the jpeg)
I wonder what a smoother "rolling average" would look like, though.
Trendline added at DK64_MASTER's request.
Weekly:
Disclaimer: The granularity for these graphs is not necessarily a calendar month / week. The units are 30 days and 7 days, but not anchored at any particular calendar position.
Anyway, to me it seems like everything is fine :)
