Today's question has real world applications. Suppose you are a financial analyst working at an investment fund managing billions of dollars in assets, and you are not a corrupt individual (shoot, I just said it had real world applications, and now I make this unrealistic assumption). Someday, someone comes to you saying they have an insurance fund made up of shitcoins they created themselves. A possible example is if they tweeted the following:
Now, assume, just in theory, of course I'm not trying to imply anything here, that when they show you the daily value of this fund, instead of calculating it from the assets there, they just use the following Python code, with a Gaussian of mean 7500 and standard deviation 3000, which is summed to the value each day:
The question is: what is the probability that this code will increase the value of the fund each day it runs? Do you think this pattern is reasonable for a fund consisting of an asset whose price fluctuates like
this?
Please, don't try to connect this problem to current events. This is a purely academic question :D